The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has released its first spring flooding outlook for 2020 for the Red River Basin. The flooding along the main stem of the Red River was a top ten flood a year ago, and this year could be a top-five flood. In Crookston the Red Lake River crested at 24.74 feet, just missing the level of reaching a top 10 crest of the river in Crookston. Currently, there is a 50 percent chance the Red Lake River could crest above 24 feet again in 2020.
The average precipitation in the Red River Valley for 2019 was 29.15 inches, a record for the area. Much of that came during record-setting precipitation during the fall and early winter which in Crookston was as much as eight inches above normal, and was closer to 10 inches above normal in East Grand Forks. According to the National Weather Service’s Greg Gust, the wet year has led to a flooding outlook at or above the level seen in 2019. “The bottom line upfront that we are currently at or higher in our outlook prospects then we were for the 2019 spring flood,” said Gust. “Last year was a top 10 flood along the mainstream red, but not so much along the tributaries, except in the southern part of the basin. This year very well could be a top five flood though much is left to be determined. We are on track for a record fall-winter period precipitation wise. The fall to early winter period from September 1 through December was a record for precipitation in the area. Soils are really, really wet underlying the snow cover now. Late winter to early spring that January through April period, possibly into May, is tracking high and is expected to continue that track.”
There is a good chance for widespread runoff, road closure and the closing of floodwalls as two of the seven key ingredients, fall precipitation and streamflow, for a flood have been ‘well’ met according to Gust. And snowpack is deeper and at least as wet as normal with the one mitigating factor being low frost depths, said Gust. “What’s next,” said Gust. “We know that the first two key ingredients for a flood are well met. Throughout the basin, both fall moisture and base streamflow are near record amounts. In general, frost depths are running below normal, less deep than last year at this time. Still at 8”-30” but still highly variable depending on snowpack. The winter snowpack is above normal, except for the far northern Red River Basin. The snow water in that is high, very near our typical winter season values already and higher than that in some places.”
The risk for flooding throughout the basin is already high including along the Red River from Fargo to the Canadian border where the risk is considered major as is the Red Lake River in Crookston. There is a good chance for widespread runoff, road closure and the closing of floodwalls although it is noted there is a lot of the winter season yet to play out.
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