The National Weather Service in Grand Forks released an updated flood outlook this morning. The risk for flooding in the Red River Basin has risen to moderate to major throughout the region. With two storm systems in line for the next week, the water content in the snowpack is expected to rise across the region. In Crookston where the snowpack was measured at 27 inches on March 1 with higher than normal water content both in Crookston and further up the Red Lake River.
Lee said those water content numbers were a bit outdated as it takes a long time to cover the entire region and there had been more snowfall. When looking at the snow flood outlook probabilities Lee said the National Weather Service considers the mid-range around 50 percent the most likely possibility. “A really good way to look at it is the 50 percent area is the most probable situation,” said Amanda Lee, service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, North Dakota. “Now since we have the possible system this weekend and next week we’re also trying to advertise that 25 percent value because the bigger those systems are will push more towards that 25 percent value.”
The National Weather Service’s most likely scenario shows the Red Lake River cresting at 24.5 to 26.1 feet without accounting for ice jams. Crookston is also one of the most likely areas in the Red River Basin to experience record flooding with a 10 percent chance the river crests at 29.3 feet. KROX will keep you updated the rest of the winter and into spring. The river crest projections and probabilities are below –
[embeddoc url=”https://kroxam.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/RRN_and-DVL_Early_March_Discussion_ver1_7Mar2019.pdf” download=”all”]
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