The National Weather Service (NWS) Center of Grand Forks recently released a Weather Support Packet on a Spring Flood Update in the Red River Basin, giving key messages and advice on what to do in case of floods as well as weather updates for the spring. NWS Grand Forks Service Hydrologist Amanda Lee gave updates on the latest river levels, spring weather forecasts, and safety tips on minor to moderate flooding and flash floods.
Lee reported that with the high temperatures over the last week and a half, the snowmelt has been much higher than they expected for the majority of the Red River Basin, which has caused river levels to rise. Mainly in the southern areas of the Basin and in parts of Northwestern Minnesota, but most other areas remain at levels much lower than what the NWS was expecting during the winter. “Thankfully, the soils are able to absorb a lot of the snowmelt, so we’re not seeing quite the river rises that we were expecting with the amount of snow and snow water we had. So looking at most places around the Red River Basin, we’re looking at some minor flooding in the next few days, extending through the next week.” NWS Grand Forks Hydrologist Amanda Lee explained, “Most locations will be just above Minor Flood stage, but we do have a few that are getting into the Moderate Flood stage, mainly the Oslo area and more locations further down south in the Valley like Abercrombie. Most places will see minor flooding, but a few won’t see anything at all.” The Service Center also reported that there weren’t any large precipitation systems coming in the near future. The only case is a possible rain and snow mix at the beginning of next week but believes it will not affect any river levels significantly.
Though there are quiet conditions for now, Lee hopes that the current river levels and flooding will save the Counties in the Basin from major flood threats in the summer. “It’s a good thing that these floodings are happening now as it’ll give time for river levels to recede a little bit again,” Lee explained, “So in the future, maybe later in April or as we move into May, if we happen to get any heavy rain events, hopefully, the rivers will be able to handle them since they’ve already passed through this snowmelt flood phase.” But she warns everyone to be wary as if a heavy rain event happens, the flood threat potential will greatly rise, affecting the rest of the spring and even parts of the summer as there is still some ice that remains in the river channels that can cause the river levels to rise more rapidly than expected, which is a reoccurring event that happens in the Crookston area quite often and is still a possibility with the slightly elevated river levels.
If the worst does come to pass with rising river levels and flood threats, Lee gave some advice on how everyone can stay safe from the running waters. “Stay on top of the weather forecast and pay attention if there will be any big weather systems on the horizon that can potentially cause a lot of rainfall.” Lee explained, “And as heavy rainfall’s occurring if you see water start ponding in places on roadways, you never want to drive through any kind of flooded roadway, even if the road isn’t closed quite yet because you don’t know what the road looks like underneath. Especially in flash flood situations where the roads can fill up quickly. So as soon as you see something like that, turn around and try and go another way.”
Lee also reported very slim chances for any major precipitation systems coming to the area in the foreseeable future, but there may be some temperatures that fall a bit below the season’s average threshold of the upper 30s and low 40s with the end of March and early April. Though she also noted that there would be days where the temperatures may go into the mid-40s. Other than some minor chances of precipitation over the next two weeks and beyond that, there are no strong signals for above or below-normal precipitation. She hopes that patterns will normalize by the summer season to one that is not too wet or too dry.
Lee believes that overall, thanks to the recent dry conditions and the soil absorbing most of the snowmelt, the Red River Basin towns have low-level risks of floods despite the large amounts of snow we received over the winter. She wishes to remind the public to stay tuned to their NOAA Weather Radios and reports from the NWS for any future heavy rain events that may cause a return to any kind of flooding or the rise of river levels. The NWS Minnesota Severe Weather Awareness Week will take place the week of April 4th through the 8th, with Wednesday focusing its presentation on Floods. To see what towns in the Red River Basin are at risk for Minor and Moderate Flooding, you can see the 2022 Spring Flood Update packet sent by the NWS Grand Forks down below.
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